For over a decade, China has been the backbone of low-cost ecommerce fulfillment. Powered by AliExpress, CJdropshipping, and Temu, countless brands and dropshippers have built businesses on the promise of cheap products, fast turnaround, and global shipping at a fraction of the price they’d pay anywhere else.

But in 2025, that promise is starting to crack.

Rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain volatility are making it harder—and riskier—to rely on China as your go-to fulfillment hub. The question now isn’t “Is Chinese fulfillment cheap?” It’s “Is it still worth the risk?“

In this post—part of our ongoing series on adapting supply chain and fulfillment strategies to real-world economic pressures—we unpack why Chinese fulfillment is getting riskier, what’s driving the shift, and how ecommerce brands can stay ahead of the curve.

1. What Made It So Cheap (and Fast) in the First Place

For years, China offered an unbeatable mix of factors that made it the clear winner for ecommerce fulfillment:

  • Massive economies of scale in manufacturing and assembly
  • Extremely low labor costs, especially compared to the U.S. or EU
  • Government incentives for export-heavy businesses and factory towns
  • Well-developed infrastructure like ePacket and logistics networks optimized for small-parcel international shipping
  • Global-facing platforms like AliExpress, CJdropshipping, and now Temu that simplified access for even the smallest sellers

The result? A global ecommerce boom powered by low product costs, just-in-time fulfillment, and accessible cross-border tools—even for entrepreneurs just starting out.

2. The Pressures Mounting in 2025

Fast forward to this year, and the cracks are showing. Chinese fulfillment isn’t gone—but it’s a lot more complicated than it used to be.

Tariffs Are Back—Big Time
In April 2025, the U.S. imposed sweeping new tariffs: a baseline 10% on all imports and an additional 34% specifically on Chinese goods—with a threat of another 50% if China doesn’t roll back its retaliatory measures.

Labor and Environmental Regulations Are Tightening
China’s labor costs have been steadily rising for years. Add in stricter labor and environmental regulations, and some factories are slowing production—or closing altogether. Fewer options mean higher prices and longer lead times.

Geopolitical Tensions Are Heating Up
U.S.-China relations remain strained. Risks around Taiwan, sanctions, and cybersecurity are all creating uncertainty for businesses relying heavily on Chinese suppliers.

Shipping Volatility Is Increasing
Port congestion, container shortages, and ongoing freight instability continue to drive unpredictable shipping costs and timelines. A two-week delivery promise could easily become four—or more.

Platform-Level Scrutiny Is Growing
Major ecommerce platforms are tightening their rules. Categories that were once low-risk—like cosmetics, supplements, or electronics—are now under greater scrutiny for safety, trademark issues, or banned materials.

3. How It’s Affecting Dropshippers and Small Brands

These pressures aren’t just theoretical. For small ecommerce brands, the impact is already being felt:

  • Margins are disappearing as product costs spike and fees pile up.
  • Refund rates are rising due to delays and customer dissatisfaction.
  • Merchant services holds from Stripe, Shopify Payments, or PayPal are more common.
  • Unreliable supplier communication leaves sellers scrambling for answers.
  • Brand trust erodes when customers get inconsistent quality or slow shipments.

If your business model is based on importing $5 products and selling them for $20, you might not have room left to absorb these hits.

4. What Smart Sellers Can Do Instead

The old model of cheap, reliable fulfillment out of China is no longer a given. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t paths forward. Sellers who want to adapt and thrive in today’s environment have several strategic options:

  • Diversify Suppliers – Relying on a single region—especially one under heavy tariff pressure—puts your entire business at risk. By expanding your sourcing network across multiple geographies, you reduce dependency on any one political system, labor market, or shipping corridor. Diversification not only builds resilience—it also gives you leverage when negotiating lead times, pricing, and fulfillment options.
  • Consider U.S.-Based Fulfillment Alternatives – Fulfillment partners located closer to your customer base—including print-on-demand platforms, white-label services, and traditional 3PLs—can help stabilize your operation in volatile times. While unit costs may be higher, you gain speed, control, and reliability—critical factors when customer expectations are rising and platform penalties for late delivery are real.
  • Reposition Catalogs – The old playbook of pushing trending, low-cost products with razor-thin margins no longer holds up. Smart sellers are shifting toward curated, higher-value offerings that justify a premium and are less sensitive to shipping timelines. Think niche, thoughtful, and defensible—not mass-market and replaceable.
  • Invest in Brand Building – Brand trust is a strategic asset. When customers know who you are, what you stand for, and what to expect, they’re more likely to tolerate delays, pay a little more, and come back. That stability gives you breathing room when logistics go sideways—and a long-term edge over competitors chasing one-time transactions.

The key isn’t to find a perfect replacement for the old model—it’s to build a more resilient one that can flex with the market.

5. So… Is It Over?

The short answer: not entirely.

China is still a global manufacturing powerhouse—and for certain product categories, it may remain your best option. But the era of easy, ultra-cheap, low-risk Chinese fulfillment is fading. If you’re building your business as if the old rules still apply, you may find yourself squeezed out of the market by costs, delays, or platform penalties.

Moving forward requires intentionality, flexibility, and a real strategy—not just relying on shortcuts and hoping things work like they used to.

Final Thoughts

It was the perfect setup for a time: cheap goods, fast shipping, few questions asked. But the game has changed—and the rules with it.

This isn’t a call to abandon what works. It’s a call to evolve. Sellers who are willing to rethink where they source, how they fulfill, and what they sell will be the ones who endure the next wave of change—and come out ahead.

Thinking about US-based order fulfillment? Let’s talk!